Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 1.124407 1.188603 1.255224 1.329666 1.410698 1.496421 1.594208
2026-02-01 1.008565 1.097396 1.193576 1.305989 1.434462 1.577540 1.750098
2026-02-08 0.926007 1.026779 1.138990 1.274193 1.434025 1.618662 1.850625
2026-02-15 0.874252 0.984233 1.109514 1.264304 1.452560 1.676967 1.969178
2026-02-22 0.838439 0.956373 1.093392 1.266473 1.482399 1.747256 2.103836
2026-03-01 0.797571 0.919396 1.063217 1.248212 1.483923 1.780104 2.190437
2026-03-08 0.755190 0.878046 1.024991 1.216858 1.465675 1.784770 2.237874
2026-03-15 0.727356 0.852909 1.005048 1.206706 1.472945 1.821619 2.329600
2026-03-22 0.714846 0.845901 1.006945 1.223919 1.516056 1.907660 2.494966
2026-03-29 0.696321 0.830315 0.996928 1.224551 1.536257 1.962672 2.618841
2026-04-05 0.684279 0.822306 0.996008 1.236726 1.572189 2.040981 2.782364
2026-04-12 0.664609 0.803611 0.980226 1.227809 1.577783 2.075481 2.880732
2026-04-19 0.654523 0.797560 0.981513 1.243165 1.619824 2.167739 3.081217
2026-04-26 0.630945 0.772975 0.957179 1.221883 1.607890 2.178594 3.151055
2026-05-03 0.606109 0.745875 0.928421 1.193005 1.583063 2.167784 3.183029
2026-05-10 0.590034 0.729943 0.914202 1.184016 1.587022 2.201347 3.292843
2026-05-17 0.578824 0.720145 0.907938 1.185988 1.607265 2.261387 3.453879
2026-05-24 0.561901 0.702038 0.889504 1.169382 1.598017 2.272968 3.528089
2026-05-31 0.541852 0.679110 0.863640 1.140848 1.568844 2.249987 3.535995
2026-06-07 0.529180 0.665992 0.851144 1.131603 1.569356 2.276126 3.638520
2026-06-14 0.525192 0.664735 0.855300 1.147276 1.609936 2.372121 3.885323
2026-06-21 0.516659 0.656862 0.849701 1.147852 1.626034 2.426724 4.055323
2026-06-28 0.511742 0.653898 0.851012 1.158933 1.659669 2.514084 4.302130